China has banned US exports of key minerals for computer chips – leaving Washington with limited options
The move is the latest salvo in the “chip war” between the US and China.
December 29, 2024
China recently banned the export of the minerals gallium and germanium to the US amid growing tensions between the two countries on trade.
The minerals are of critical economic value because they are used in computer chips, in military technology such as night vision goggles, and in the renewable energy industry, where they are important for manufacturing electric vehicles and solar cells.
All of these areas are very sensitive sectors for the US and EU.
China has overwhelming market power over supply, because it is the source of 98% of primary gallium and 91% of primary germanium. Primary refers to “raw” sources such as mineral ore.
In several sectors where the minerals are used, there are no substitutes for them.
Gallium and germanium are present in very low concentration as byproducts of major minerals – they’re known as trace minerals.
Germanium’s primary source is the residue from zinc refineries and coal fly ash (a powdered residue produced when coal is burnt in power plants).
Gallium is mainly produced as a byproduct of bauxite ore (which is the main source for aluminium) as well as the processing stage to extract aluminium from bauxite.
The Chinese ban on exports of these minerals to the US closely followed Washington’s third crackdown in three years on China’s semiconductor (computer chip) industry.
The US wants to curb exports of advanced chips to China that could be used in applications that threaten America’s security.
For example, advanced chips could be used in electronic warfare applications that make use of artificial intelligence (AI), or in advanced weapons systems such as hypersonic missiles.
China said its ban on gallium and germanium was because of the minerals’ “dual military and civilian uses”.
According to a report in Reuters in 2023, the US Department of Defense holds a strategic stockpile of germanium, but no reserves of gallium.
In October 2024, the US Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that a total ban on the export of gallium and germanium could result in a US$3.4 billion loss to US GDP.
The minerals’ uses extend far beyond national security applications.
Gallium is used in solid-state lighting devices, including light-emitting diodes (LEDs).
Germanium is used in optical fibres and as a catalyst to speed up the reactions used in manufacturing polyster and PLA (a bioplastic).
The minerals are vital for making the electronic devices we depend on every day, such as smartphones, displays and laptops.
So what can the US do to circumvent the effects of the ban, given China’s near monopoly on the primary production of these critical minerals?
One route is for the US to re-start and expand domestic mining of these minerals. Indeed, the Pentagon has already indicated that this is being explored.
As previously mentioned, gallium is mainly recovered as a byproduct of processing aluminium or zinc ores. The USGS says that some US zinc deposits contain up to 50 parts per million of gallium, but the mineral is not currently recovered from these deposits.
Historically, reported production of germanium in the US has been limited to one site, the Apex mine in Washington County, Utah. The Apex mine produced both gallium and germanium as primary products during the mid-1980s, but it has since closed.
Another option for the US is to diversify the primary production of these minerals by investing in zinc, coal, and bauxite refineries in other, friendly countries since, for instance, only 3-5% of germanium is recovered from the refining process of zinc and coal.
Canada’s Teck Resources is the biggest supplier of germanium in North America, extracting the mineral from its Trail smelter in British Columbia.
An alternative would be to step up extraction from so-called secondary sources, which primarily means recycling old electronic devices and other hardware that has reached the end of its useful life.
There are no official statistics on secondary supply, but some reports estimate that no more than 10% of the total gallium supply comes from secondary sources.
This share reaches 30% in the case of germanium.
However, there are important barriers to increasing the secondary production of these minerals. The process for recovery through recycling is very complex since, in hardware such as computer chips, the minerals are usually combined with other materials.
This makes isolating the minerals difficult.
Consequently, the Chinese ban represents a major supply chain disruption for these minerals. The lower primary supply cannot be offset by secondary supply (recycling) in the short term, since the recovery yield is still low and its cost is not competitive.
In the long term, technological advances in this recovery process for both minerals could reduce its cost and increase the supply, thus reducing the dependence on Chinese mineral ores.
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The USA will obtain what we need, when we need it. Don't you think this blockade was anticipated and steps taken?